Analysis of Trump's Victory - An Interview with Alain de Benoist
Alain de Benoist gives his post-election analysis of the Trump victory in an interview with Breizh-Info
This interview was originally published here at Breizh-Info on 11/8/2024.
Translated by Alexander Raynor
BREIZH INFO: What is your immediate analysis of Donald Trump's decisive victory?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: General de Gaulle, when praised about the American political system, had responded: "In France, the Supreme Court is the people." Donald Trump was the candidate of the working classes, which is why he won. His victory is even more significant because beyond the electoral college vote (which isn't truly democratic), he won the popular vote with a substantial lead over his pitiful rival, something he hadn't achieved in 2016 or 2020 (and something no Republican candidate had done since 2004). In other words, Trump's victory is above all the victory of the people over the Establishment. In France, we would call it "peripheral France." Across the Atlantic, it's more the victory of continental America over maritime America.
Finally, and this has been less emphasized, it's also the victory of concrete reference over abstraction. Trump spoke about America, meaning a very specific reality, while his opponent spoke of grand universal notions - "democracy," the fight for "freedom," "civilization" - which, like all terms that don't refer to specific, singular content, are just meaningless mantras.
BREIZH INFO: In your opinion, how will Trump's presidency affect relations between the United States and Europe, particularly on crucial issues like Ukraine and European defense, but also on the question of protectionism? Some believe Trump could encourage a form of strategic independence in Europe. Do you think a second term could accelerate a greater desire for autonomy in defense and foreign policy in Europe?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: Relations with Europe will change. Donald Trump is notoriously indifferent to the transatlantic link. He finds NATO expensive for Americans and believes it doesn't bring them much in return. Could this shake up Europeans who have so far been too prone to imagine that "in case of trouble, we can count on our American allies"? In some cases, they can count on them, in others certainly not. Trump wants to break with the "democratic missionary" approach to refound America on the classic logic of great powers. And he wants to end conflicts that lead nowhere. Regarding Ukraine, his initiatives are likely to displease Zelensky, not because Trump sympathizes with Putin, but because he wants to end a war that hasn't achieved its objectives, and that Ukraine has already lost. But those expecting him to develop a policy allowing Russia to be considered "acceptable" again will be disappointed. Similarly, in the Middle East, it's unlikely he'll agree to engage in the armed confrontation with Iran that Netanyahu dreams of. Russia will remain an enemy for Americans, but the great rival is China, and it's clearly on China that Trump wants to concentrate his efforts.
Protectionism is another issue. Trump has never hidden his intention to revise upward the tariffs on products exported to the United States. The Chinese fear their goods will be taxed at 60%, while they're only taxed at 20% today. Europeans are also targeted. Trump won't give them any gifts. Generally, the new president will probably maintain good relations with some European countries, but he won't address Europeans as a whole. He'll stick to bilateral relations allowing him to better defend his interests.
As for whether Europeans will show "increased desire for autonomy in defense and foreign policy" in this new context, one can always dream. At best, they'll only move in this direction reluctantly. The European Union is currently in its terminal phase. The biggest criticism one can make of it, to return to the distinction I made earlier, is having emptied the word "Europe" of all substantial content (identity, power, borders, principles) to make it synonymous with "universal values" which, when applied to concrete situations, mean absolutely nothing.
BREIZH INFO: Trump is often seen as a symbol of resistance against globalization but also against wokeness. Do you think his re-election could galvanize nationalist movements in Europe and strengthen populist right-wing political figures?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: I very much doubt it. I completely understand the sympathy that certain Trump positions can generate in "nationalist" circles. The support shown by Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orbán is equally understandable. But does this mean Trump should be taken as an example? I don't believe so for a moment, as political life is so different in America compared to this side of the Atlantic. Just as Black Africans are not Europeans with darker skin, Americans are not English-speaking Europeans. The deep reasons for Donald Trump's success relate to realities very foreign to Europe. The role played by an Elon Musk, the place of evangelical Christians (and Christian Zionists) who idolize the Bible and Constitution, the brutal tone of Trump's interventions - none of this has an equivalent in Europe. Lazy minds react emotionally to keywords - immigration, wokeness, etc. - but only see one aspect of things. Any attempt to do "like Trump" in Europe is, in my opinion, doomed to failure. Europeans should rather worry about what America wanting to regain its "greatness" means for us. If it does regain it, that's when they'll be truly threatened.
BREIZH INFO: How do you see the dynamics between the United States, China, and Russia evolving? Could Europe find itself more isolated or, conversely, seek a new form of strategic partnership?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: The United States will continue to see Russia, and especially China, as the greatest threats to their already shaky hegemony. In the immediate term, having failed to bring Russia "to its knees," they will disengage from the European theater, which no longer holds much importance in their eyes. They will only continue to do everything to prevent Europe from becoming a power, meaning a rival. Europe will find itself facing its responsibilities, which it is clearly not capable of assuming. The main risk for Europe is not "becoming isolated," but continuing to count for nothing. This will remain the case until the necessary systemic rupture we need occurs.
BREIZH INFO: Given Trump's very firm positions on immigration, do you think such an approach could inspire more restrictive immigration policies in Europe?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: Possibly yes, but again, let's not transpose what cannot be transposed. Speaking of immigration in itself is using a catch-all word that means nothing by itself. The immigration-related problems in the United States and Europe are very different in nature. Latino immigrants, who try by all means to cross the Rio Grande, are Catholics, not Muslims. They generally admire the country where they want to settle and seek to integrate. These are already important differences (this explains why Trump received 12% of Black votes and 45% of Latino votes). The border question also poses itself differently, for both historical and geographical reasons. Finally, we shouldn't forget that ultimately, it's the general mobility generated by the expansion of the capitalist system that is the most fundamental cause of the social pathologies born from immigration that we know.
BREIZH INFO: More globally, Donald Trump's victory shows a significant divide in the United States. Is a secession of the country in the coming decades something you think is possible?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: It is indeed a real problem. We're witnessing in the United States the return and exacerbation of political polarization to which we weren't accustomed. The Democratic vote in Southern states (the "Dixiecrats"), which persisted for historical reasons (Lincoln was Republican), long had the consequence of bringing Democratic and Republican party programs so close together that they became indistinguishable, especially for foreign observers. The progressive rallying of the South to the Republicans changed the situation. Polarization has done its work and today, Democrats and Republicans no longer speak to each other. There are now two Americas that feel nothing but hatred for each other. In the medium term, anything is possible, starting with, in this over-armed country that is America (there are more handguns than inhabitants), a civil war which personally seems to me a much greater possibility in the United States than in our country. In the weeks preceding the presidential election, there was already more than just concern about what might have happened if Trump hadn't been elected. These passions aren't about to subside. Trump would do well to have good bodyguards...
BREIZH INFO: Finally, Trump's victory is a slap, a thrashing, for the mainstream media caste which, in France as internationally, campaigned for Harris. Do you think this new defeat for the caste will lead them to new approaches, new perspectives on the world's evolution, or has ideology made them permanently blind?
ALAIN DE BENOIST: The Democratic party's symbol is the elephant (TN: The elephant is the mascot of the Republican Party - perhaps some confusion on the part of AdB). And, as is well known, an elephant Trumps enormously! I admit that watching the pinched expressions, furrowed brows, and labored explanations of the media circus masters, who already saw Kamala Harris settling into the White House after a "close election," was a delightful spectacle. No warning signs shook them, and Hillary Clinton's failure in 2016 didn't teach them a lesson either! They don't understand how it's even possible that Trump won. More precisely, they don't understand that Trump won, not despite, but because of everything they find abominable about him. You're right, these people are blind. They are blind because they live in their bubble and cannot realize that the real world is less and less conforming to their wishful thinking. They are politically, morally, physically, intellectually incorrigible. They dance and pontificate on the Titanic's deck, without seeing that their world is collapsing, and that the one that will succeed it will be even harder. They pull ritual formulas out of prayer wheels - "populism," "hate speech," "systemic racism," "toxic masculinity" - but nobody cares. Let them babble, let them sleep. History is being written without them - elsewhere.